报 告 人：达高峰 教授
报告题目：Assessing Cyber Risks of Networked Systems Based on L-hop Propagation
达高峰，现任南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师，南航长空英才学者，数量经济研究所所长。主要研究方向为网络（系统）可靠性与安全性管理等。在国际著名期刊IISE Trans.、EJOR、IEEE Trans. on Reliab.、IME、JMVA等发表研究论文20余篇，出版学术著作1部；现主持国家自科面上项目1项，完成国家自科面上项目、国家自科青年基金项目等科研项目6项；担任中国“双法”学会工业工程分会常务理事等。
Cyber risks are the most common risks encountered by a modern networked system. Among various characteristics, propagation should be one of the most important characteristics of cyber risks. On the assumption of risk propagation, the assessment of cyber risks, namely, the size of compromised nodes after certain types of incidents, has been studied for a long time in the literature. However, most of them only focus on the limiting behavior or approximation of size of compromised nodes of large-scale networks and ignore some important elements of risk management such as the heterogeneity, dependence and so on, which may cause a limited application. In this talk, we focus on the accurate distribution and dependence of sizes of compromised nodes in an arbitrary network based on the proposed L-hop propagation model: (1) we provide an exact algorithm for the multivariate distribution of sizes of compromised nodes with different types as well as explicit formulas; (2) we discuss the dependence of the sizes of compromised nodes with different types and we prove that it always possesses the positive association dependence among the sizes; (3) we provide some useful bounds for mean, variance and covariance of the sizes which may be used to roughly evaluate the cyber risks for a large network. Some results and useful insights for certain specific network topologies.